Mitsubishi HC Capital America Identifies Four Key Trends to Shape Equipment Finance in 2026

Key Takeaways:

• Economic Outlook: 2026 expected to bring easing inflation, modest rate cuts, and renewed investment activity—though global trade pressures and uneven consumer trends keep businesses cautious.
• Technology & AI: Explosive growth in AI and supercomputing is driving multi-year, capital-intensive projects like data centers (global spending hit $580B this year). Financing models must adapt with scalable, flexible structures.
• Shift to Flexible Solutions: Equipment financing is moving beyond traditional loans toward short-term leases, rentals, and value-added services (remarketing, trade-in programs). Equipment rental market projected to reach $82.6B in 2025.
• Regulatory & Bank Partnerships: Banks are pulling back from small business lending, creating opportunities for independent lenders and strategic partnerships. Deregulation is opening new channels for collaboration.
• Private Credit Expansion: U.S. private credit market at $3T, projected to hit $5T by 2029, as businesses seek faster, more flexible financing options.

With the start of a year that is expected to bring easing inflation, nominal interest rate cuts, and renewed investment activity, Mitsubishi HC Capital America has identified four key trends that are expected to shape the equipment finance and private credit markets in 2026. 

“While some market trends have raised concerns, the focus remains on the fundamentals: strong collateral, disciplined underwriting, and transparent partnerships,” said Brian Rosa, President of Commercial Finance for Mitsubishi HC Capital America. “We continue to take a long-term, measured approach to growth. This stance reflects the realities of an evolving economy where market forces and macroeconomic factors are shaping lending strategies.”

Against this backdrop, several themes are emerging that will define the equipment market in 2026, from technology-driven innovation to evolving risk strategies.

Technology, AI, and the Next Phase of Equipment Finance

Next year, it is anticipated that lenders will further adopt a more disciplined and forward-looking strategy that includes emerging technologies such as AI and supercomputing. 

As artificial intelligence and supercomputing accelerate at unprecedented speed and reshape industries from manufacturing to logistics, demand for massive investments in data centers, cloud infrastructure, and advanced computing equipment continues to surge. In just this year alone, global spending on AI-driven data centers reached $580 billion. These projects are capital-intensive and often span multiple years, requiring financing models that can flex with evolving technology and demand. At the same time, growing debate around an “AI bubble” has led lenders and investors to approach the sector with more selectivity and rigor.

“Large-scale computing projects are expanding rapidly, driven by hyperscalers and rising demand for data center capacity,” explained Rosa. “These projects require sophisticated, scalable financing solutions that must evolve alongside the technology itself, supporting project completion as needs and demand grow.”

Beyond AI, lenders must also advance their use of analytics and telematics to modernize equipment financing. “Advancements in technology are revolutionizing equipment financing through enhanced analytics and ‘as-a-service’ models,” Rosa explained. “The future lies in usage-based financing structures that reward efficiency and align with how businesses actually operate.”

Evolving from Lender to Solutions Provider

Financing is evolving beyond traditional lending as companies look for solutions that better align with their operational realities. Businesses are increasingly seeking flexible structures that support cash flow, reduce risk, and provide greater control over their assets.

Short-term leases and rentals are gaining momentum as companies prioritize flexibility. The equipment rental market is projected to grow nearly 6% in 2025, reaching $82.6 billion and surpassing 2024’s record of $78.2 billion. This growth is fueled by demand for cost-effective solutions and asset-light strategies, enabling businesses to reduce upfront costs and allocate capital more strategically.

Value-added services such as remarketing support, trade-in programs, and adaptable leasing options are becoming more common across the market. These offerings help companies preserve working capital and respond more quickly to changing needs.

Regulatory Changes and Strategic Bank Partnerships

As the regulatory landscape evolves, Rosa sees an emerging opportunity in bank partnerships. With traditional banks pulling back from small business lending, independent lenders are stepping in to close the gap.

“Banks are actively seeking partnerships with independent lenders to access markets they can’t reach directly,” said Rosa. “This shift plays to our strengths in creative structuring and relationship-driven financing.”

Deregulation is also reshaping the lending landscape, opening new pathways for banks to participate and find markets they previously couldn’t access. As a result, more banks are working with independent lenders to extend their reach and stay competitive in specialized sectors.

Market and Economic Outlook

Mitsubishi HC Capital America also addressed the broader economic backdrop, noting the impact of tariffs, political uncertainty, and interest rate movements on capital planning. Businesses are entering 2026 with cautious optimism as rate cuts appear likely, but uneven consumer trends and global trade pressures continue to create uncertainty. These dynamics are influencing how companies allocate capital, manage liquidity, and structure financing for growth.

Within this environment, private credit continues to expand as traditional banks retrench. The U.S. private credit market reached $3 trillion in early 2025 and is projected to hit $5 trillion by 2029, reflecting a shift toward alternative financing sources as businesses seek flexibility and speed. Rosa emphasizes that companies should maintain a balanced, sector-specific approach to mitigate risk while positioning for growth.

“Volatility is inevitable, but preparation is everything,” added Rosa. “We’re positioned to adapt quickly, whether that means adjusting our exposure, refining product structures, or expanding into new value-added services.”